Before I get to my prediction, let’s have a preview of the series:

The Yankees have made the World Series for the first time in 6 years. This will be the 40th time the Yankees have been in the World Series (they won 26 times) and it is the first time that they have made the World Series since losing to the Marlins in 2003. The last time the Yankees won the World Series was in 2000 against the Mets.

The Phillies have made the World Series for the 2nd time in as many years. This will be the 7th time that the Phillies have been in the World Series (they won twice). The Phillies are the defending World Series Champions.

The Yankees had the best team batting average in the League Championship series (.279 in 6 games), while the Phillies had the worst batting average (.231 in 5 games). The Phillies had the most RBIs (34) and the Yankees had the second most (30). The Phillies hit the most HRs (10) and the Yankees hit the 2nd most (8). The Yankees had the highest On Base Percentage (.389) and the Phillies had the 2nd highest (.348). The Yankees also had the pitching advantage in the LCS, the Yankees team ERA was 2.91 (1st) and the Phillies team ERA was 3.07 (2nd).

The Phillies had a better team ERA in the regular season (4.16) than the Yankees did (4.26). The Yankees struck out more batters (1260) than the Phillies (1153). The Yankees were second in the Majors with a .283 batting average, while the Phillies were 23rd (of 30) with a .258 batting average. The Yankees had the most home-runs in the majors (244) and the Phillies were tied for 2nd (224). The Phillies strikeout more than the Yankees (1155 – 1014), and the Yankees walk more (663 [most in the majors] – 589). The Yankees had the most RBIs in the majors (881) and the Phillies had the 4th most (788).

Now most people going into the World Series would tell you that the Phillies are the better hitting team in the series, but clearly they are not. The Phillies hit the long-ball (but so do the Yankees, so they neutralize each other), but the Yankees hit the ball more often (the regular season and LCS batting averages prove this).

The starting pitching is close to even in the series (maybe the edge goes to the Yankees because of Pettitte’s experience), both teams have former Indians’ CY Young winners as their aces (Sabathia for the Yankees and Lee for the Phillies). The major advantage for the Yankees is the bullpen, the bullpen throughout the season has been much better than the Phillies (although the Phillies bullpen has been very good in the playoffs [so far]).

The Phillies and Yankees played one series during interleague play and the Phillies won the series 2 of 3. During the series, Lidge blew two saves for the Phillies.

I am going to be sticking with my original prediction of the Yankees winning the World Series. I am picking them for a few reasons:

1. Just looking at numbers the Yankees have the better team, but numbers are not the only important thing…
2. The Yankees were the best team at home during the regular season and they have yet to lose at home in the playoffs. The Yankees were 12 games better (57 wins to 45) than the Phillies at home. The Phillies actually played better on the road this season…
3. The Yankees and Phillies are about even on the road. Although the Phillies played better on the road than at home, they were only 2 games better than the Yankees were on the road (48 wins to 46).

With home-field advantage and the statistically better team, added to the fact that the Phillies don’t play particularly well at home, I think the Yankees will win the series in 6 games, with the breakdown the same as the LCS:

Game 1: Yankees win
Game 2: Yankees win
Game 3: Phillies win
Game 4: Yankees win
Game 5: Phillies win
Game 6: Yankees win

Comments? Questions? Feel free to post them below, or send me a tweet @MikesPickz

American League Division Series (ALDS):

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
This is probably the most one-sided match-up in the postseason. I like the Yankees in this series. I think the Yankees are a more complete team and will benefit tremendously from home field advantage.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. Boston Red Sox
This is going to be a very competitive series, but someone has to win it and I think that someone will be the Angels. These two teams are way different. The Red Sox are more of the power team, whereas the Angels are the small ball speed team. Past history doesn’t bode well for the Angels, but I think this year things will be different. If the Angels win one of the first two games against Lester or Beckett, I think they will win the series thanks to home field advantage. Also, Varitek cannot throw anybody out so expect the Angels to run (and run a lot).

American League Championship Series (ALCS):

New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Yankees will get their playoff nemesis in the ALCS. The Yankees have not had much past playoff success against the Angels, but as I mentioned before I think this season will be different and the Yankees will win the series. Why will this season be different? Well similarly to the Red Sox – Angels match-up, these two teams are way different (the Yankees are the power team and the Angels are the small ball team). The difference again will be the home field advantage, the Yankees home stadium is built perfectly for the team. Also, I honestly believe that the pitching is pretty even in terms of match-ups (Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte are just as good as Lackey, Weaver, Kazmir).

National League Division Series (NLDS):

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have one of the most amazing turnarounds that I have ever seen in the MLB. They were playing some pretty terrible baseball until they fired Clint Hurdle. After they overcame that “hurdle,” they have played some top level baseball and almost won the division. Despite that I feel that the Phillies will win this series. Cliff Lee was a top 3 deadline pick up this season, and the Phillies have a solid line-up with Utley, Howard and Ibanez. My one concern is the back of the pitching staff, the Phillies need to find a solid option to close out games. If they can’t find a reliable option, they may be in danger of the upset.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
I really like the St. Louis Cardinals this season. Acquiring Matt Holliday was a great move and they have probably the best rotation in the playoffs with Carpenter and Wainwright (either could win the Cy Young). Ryan Franklin is solid at closing out games. The Dodgers don’t have the pitching to win this series and they have not been playing their best baseball in September.

National League Championship Series (NLCS):

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
I think the Cardinals will win this series and join the Yankees in the World Series. The Cardinals have as good a  line up as the Phillies with Pujols, Holliday (if not a better one). The real difference is the pitching, the Cardinals pitching is much better than the Phillies. I would take Carpenter, Wainwright and Pineiro over Lee,  Hamels and Blanton/Happ any day of the week. I would certainly take Franklin over Lidge/Madson.

World Series:

New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Yankees look to do what they did the last time they opened a new stadium- win the world series. Clearly the Cardinals have the better starting rotation, but the Yankees have better line up when looking at the line up as a whole. The key to this series will be the fact that the Yankees have home field advantage. It will be a hard fought series, but I look for the Yankees to win it in 6 games. The Yankees are hungry for a championship, as they showed in the off-season by getting Sabathia, Teixeira and Burnett. I don’t think anything will stop the Yankees from achieving that goal.

Questions or comments? Feel free to post a comment below or send me a tweet @MikesPickz