New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers

My initial reaction was the Tigers win this series in 5 games because of pitching. Justin Verlander and Doug Fister have been pitching out of this world lately and Jose Valverde was a perfect 49 for 49 closing out games this season. But, after looking at it further – the match-up is actually stacked in the Yankees favor. Over the season, the Yankees pitching staff has been surprisingly good (4th best in the AL). It is in fact better overall than the Tigers. The key is going to come down to scoring runs, something the Yankees are known for doing. The Yankees will out slug the Tigers and when it comes down to it, the Yankees can manufacture runs. The Tigers on the other hand cannot manufacture runs – they had the least stolen bases in the entire MLB. When you consider that the Yankees have home field advantage – I’m taking the Yankees in 4 games.

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays

Great hitting (Rangers) vs great pitching. It’s very cliche, but pitching and defense wins championships and that will be to the Rays advantage in this series. The Rangers will surely miss having the dominating Cliff Lee in their rotation this postseason. It’s not only pitching, the Rays also had the fewest errors in the AL, while the Rangers had the 3rd most.  I’ll take the Rays in 5 games.

NLDS

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals

The Phillies are looking like the team to beat this postseason. They can score runs, but more importantly they can pitch. They easily have the best rotation of all the remaining teams, and that should be able to power them through the Cards in this series. But, don’t write the Cards off so quickly – if any team can dethrone the Phillies it is the Cards. The Cards were the best hitting team in the NL and they scored the most runs. They have the offensive firepower to potentially upset the Phillies rotation, but a lingering injury to Matt Holiday will be crucial to the Cards success/failure in this series. I’ll take the Phillies in a close 5 game series.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

The Brewers and Diamondbacks are two very similar teams in terms of make-up. They both have strong offenses and slightly above average pitching staffs. The Diamondbacks may have a slight edge in the bullpen, to offset the slight hitting edge that the Brewers have. This should be a fun series to watch. The Brewers had the best home record in the MLB and that should prove to be the difference in this one. I’ll take the Brewers stealing a game in Arizona and winning the series in 4 games.

Thoughts? Comment below!

[Photo Credit: halloffamememorabilia.com]

In the AL, things were a lot different. The Orioles took an early lead, but gave it right back before a rain delay held things up. The rain delay would prove to provide an exciting end of the day. While this was going on, the Yankees were taking a commanding lead on the Rays, 7-0. But the Rays weren’t willing to give up. They scored six runs in the eighth inning and made it a ballgame again. Then in the ninth inning, the Rays were down one run with 2 out and 2 strikes on Dan Johnson, when he hit a game tying homer to force extra innings.

Back in Baltimore, the Red Sox were leading in the ninth inning and they could determine their own destiny. If they win, they at least get a chance to play the Rays for the playoffs. Papelbon entered the game to close it out and as Jim Rome stated, “These dude’s are overmatched against Papelbon. This freak is DEALING.” Literally minutes afterwards, the Orioles tied the game and preceded to beat the Red Sox in the ninth inning. The Orioles celebrated like they won the pennant, but you can’t blame them, they haven’t played a meaningful game in a really long time.

The Red Sox would retreat to the clubhouse to depend on the Yankees to bail them out (isn’t that ironic). Before the Red Sox could even settle into the clubhouse (seemingly 90 seconds after the Orioles won), Evan Longoria hit a walk-off game winning home-run to beat the Yankees. The Red Sox completed a colossal collapse, and did it in dramatic fashion.

If you take a moment and think about it rationally, the Yankees would have rather had the Red Sox in the playoffs since they are in a major slump right now and they prove to be the least threatening. But then again, the Rays have a better chance of beating the Rangers in the Divisional Round, and the Yankees should have confidence that they can beat the Rays in a series (or at least a better chance than beating the Rangers).

At the end of the day, the playoffs are set. The Detroit Tigers will play the Yankees while the Texas Rangers will play the Rays in the AL. In the NL, the Arizona Diamondbacks will play the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cards will play the Phillies. Stayed tuned for my official predictions.

[Photo Credit: AP Photo/David J. Phillip via crescent-news.com]

Here’s why:

• Not the Yankees: The Yankees offered the most money and were desperate to sign Lee. Lee was thought to want a 7th year and the Yankees reluctantly included that, and he still turned them down and didn’t even get a 7th year. Why? Simple, his wife’s bad experience with Yankees’ fans. Lee’s wife was reportedly harassed while Lee pitched in Yankee Stadium this past post-season. Of course, Yankees fans were expecting to wow Lee with money, but if you don’t win the wife, you don’t win the player. Lee is a family man and this truly proves it. Good for him.
• Not the Rangers: The Rangers were in love with Cliff Lee. He was the missing piece that took them to the World Series this year. They needed him and that was their downfall. They completely botched the negotiating process, by asking Lee to name his price. It clearly didn’t sit well with his agent and I’m sure that helped influence the decision. Another factor that I think influenced his decision to spurn the Rangers was the ownership mess. Yes, the Rangers now have an owner (Nolan Ryan) and the bankruptcy is in the past, but spending a ton of money on Lee would hurt their ability to compete.
• To the Phillies: The way the situation unfolded, it seemed that Lee was waiting for the Phillies to make an offer. He was stalling with the Rangers and Yankees because he didn’t really want to be apart of either organization. The Phillies embraced him back in 2009 and he was one of the main reasons that team made it to the World Series. He loved his time in Philadelphia and maybe he didn’t hold a grudge on the trade since he knew he would return via free agency?

Now the Phillies have probably the best rotation ever assembled in the MLB – Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz was one of the best rotations ever and they only won the World Series once. In 2009, the St. Louis Cardinals had a tremendous rotation of Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Joel Pineiro and they didn’t even make the NLCS. Last season, the Phillies had a great rotation of Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels and they didn’t win the World Series either. On the flip side, the San Francisco Giants won the World Series behind solid pitching and timely hitting. The difference is the Giants had a dominant bullpen, something the Phillies still don’t have.

Does the the power staff make the Phillies a lock to win the World Series? No, but they are a favorite and their window is small. They will lose bats after this season and their aces are aging.

[Photo Credit: sullybaseball.blogspot.com]

The Rangers have not had a good history in the playoffs against the Yankees, and this game didn’t help their cause. Here what I have to say about this game and how the Rangers shot themselves in the foot.

Can the Rangers recover from this disaster? Listen Now (4:37)

The Cincinnati Reds made the playoffs for the first time in 15 years and they have tons of momentum. The Atlanta Braves will look to send Bobby Cox out of the MLB as a champion. The San Francisco Giants held off the San Diego Padres in a match-up that literally came down to the last game of the season. The Texas Rangers finally overcame the Los Angeles Angels in the AL West. The Tampa Bay Rays return to the playoffs two seasons removed from winning the AL Pennant in 2008. Then there are the familiar faces – the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins all return to the postseason this year.

October baseball is always great and this season will not be any different. Here is how I see it playing out:

AL Wild Card Match-Up
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Last season the Yankees competed against the Twins in the first round of the playoffs. The result a three game sweep for the Yankees, who went on to with their 27th World Series Championship. The Yankees have the type of offense that can carry acceptable pitching. First, they need to get some acceptable pitching. C.C. Sabathia is as good as they come and will be relied on as the workhorse that he is. Pettitte should live up to his postseason expectations, but they will need Hughes and Burnett to step up big time. Last season the Yankees were able to win the World Series on a three man rotation, this season they will need more than that. The Twins will have home field advantage in this match-up and that should help them avoid the sweep (but the cold is nothing new to the Yankees). Joe Mauer’s knee is a real question mark and if he is not effective the Twins might have some trouble- especially with Morneau out for the year.
Prediction: Yankees 3 – Twins 1
Bottom Line: The Yankees offense will carry them.

AL Divisional Match-Up
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays
The Rangers have made the postseason for the first time since 1999 and they should prove to be a tough match-up for the Rays. The Rangers finally have some pitching to go along with their potent offense. I actually like the Rangers staff (Lee, Lewis, Hunter, Wilson) over the Rays staff (Price, Shields, Garza, Davis). Both teams have speed, but the Rangers have more pop. Josh Hamilton, one of the leading AL MVP candidates, looked good over the last couple of games after returning from a rib injury.
Prediction: Rangers 3 – Rays 2
Bottom Line: The Rangers will out-pitch and out-slug the Rays.

NL Wild Card Match-Up
Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants
The Braves really struggled down the stretch, and were lucky to still make the playoffs. The Giants and Braves both made the playoffs with wins on the last day and this should be a tough match-up. The Giants have the upper hand in pitching, but they certainly can struggle to score runs at times. I expect a low scoring series, but the injuries to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado are going to hurt the Braves line-up. Both clubs have great closers – Wagner (ATL) and Wilson (SF) – that know how to strike a batter out.
Prediction: Giants 3 – Braves 2
Bottom Line: The Braves just don’t have enough offense.

NL Divisional Match-Up
Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies
The Reds are “lucky” enough to play the team with the best record in the MLB in their first postseason series in fifteen years. The Phillies have the better starting rotation, but the Reds do have a leading MVP candidate in Joey Votto. The Reds staff has less innings than the Phillies’ H2O (Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt) and that might play a factor in this series. Each member of H2O has over 200 innings while only Arroyo has more than 200 innings for the Reds. If the Phillies make it past the Reds, the innings may creep up on them. Also, it will be interesting to see how Halladay performs in his first ever postseason start. Interesting stat- The Reds are the only team to score more runs than the Phillies in the National League this season. Also, let’s not forget about the dominant starting rotation of the 2009 Cardinals, that didn’t seem to work out too well.
Prediction: Reds 3 – Phillies 2
Bottom Line: The Reds are fresh and the Phillies’ offense hasn’t been consistent enough.

AL Championship
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers
The Rangers and Yankees split their season series (4-4) and will look to settle the score on the field when it really matters. The Rangers have a slight edge in pitching and but the Yankees have a deeper line-up when things are clicking. Both teams have leading MVP candidates (Hamilton and Cano), and this should be a thrilling series.
Prediction: Yankees 4 – Rangers 3
Bottom Line: The Yankees are more experienced and that should help them prevail.

NL Championship
Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants
If you had told me at the beginning of the season that the Reds and Giants would be battling for the NL Pennant, I would have thought you were crazy. This game is going to come down to whether or not the Giants can keep up with the Reds offensively.
Prediction: Reds 4 – Giants 2
Bottom Line: The Reds will be able to outscore the Giants pretty comfortably.

World Series
New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds
The Reds would have home field advantage in this match-up since the National League was able to win the All-Star game. The Yankees did not face the Reds during the regular season and both teams should match-up in terms of pitching. The two differences will be experience and hitting. The Yankees have by far the more potent offense, with three players surpassing the 100 RBI mark (compared to one for the Reds). Home field advantage will be important for the Reds, since it forces the Yankees to take a bat out of the line-up.
Prediction: Yankees 4 – Reds 2
Bottom Line: The Yankees have too much fire power on offense and they have a true dominant ace, unlike the Reds.

What are your thoughts? Agree or not, let me know in the comments!

[Photo Credit: BigLeagueBaseballs.com]

Here is a quick summary of the trades that have taken place over the last week of the trade deadline:

Friday, July 30:

• Arizona Diamondbacks traded RHP Edwin Jackson to Chicago White Sox for RHP Dan Hudson and David Holmberg
• Washington Nationals traded RHP Matt Capps to Minnesota Twins for C Wilson Ramos and LHP Joe Testa
• Florida Marlins traded 3B Jorge Cantu to Texas Rangers for RHP Omar Poveda and RHP Evan Reed
• Atlanta Braves traded RF Mitch Jones to Pittsburgh Pirates for cash

Thursday, July 29:

• Houston Astros traded RHP Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia Phillies for LHP J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose and SS Jonathan Villar
• Baltimore Orioles traded 3B Miguel Tejada to San Diego Padres for RHP Wynn Pelzer
• Kansas City Royals traded LF Scott Podsednik to Los Angeles Dodgers for C Lucas May and RHP Elisaul Pimentel

Wednesday, July 28:

• Cleveland Indians traded 3B Jhonny Peralta to Detroit Tigers for LHP Giovany Soto

Tuesday, July 27:

• No trades

Monday, July 26:

• No trades

Sunday, July 25:

• Arizona Diamondbacks traded RHP Dan Haren to Los Angeles Angels for LHP Joe Saunders, LHP Patrick Corbin and RHP Rafael Rodriguez and a player to be named

I feel that the Angels, Rangers, White Sox, Twins and Phillies made very nice moves to help them over the last two months of the season.

• Haren will make an excellent addition to the Angels rotation to help them try to overcome the Rangers in the division.  The Rangers will look to keep their first place lead by adding an extra bat to their line-up. Cantu will most likely play first base for the Rangers.
• The White Sox strengthen their rotation with the addition of Jackson. Danks, Floyd and Jackson will be a solid 1-2-3, and not to mention Buerhle did throw a perfect game last season.
• The Twins bolster their bullpen with Capps. Jon Rauch, who filled in nicely for the injured Joe Nathan, will move to the set-up role to create a solid 8-9 punch.
• The Phillies make a nice addition by adding Oswalt. Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt will be a deadly combination come playoff time.

Photo Credit: itlnet.net

Related articles

• Five Players Most Likely to Be Traded by The Trade Deadline (bleacherreport.com)
• MLB Trades: Matt Capps to Twins, Roy Oswalt to Phillies and More (bleacherreport.com)
• MLB Trade Rumors Live Blog: Adam Dunn to Yankees, White Sox or Rays? (bleacherreport.com)

Many Yankees fans and baseball fans are in agreement with this move, but I do not think this is the best move for the Yankees. Here’s why:

1. We have seen Hughes in the rotation before–> not very effective at all. Yes, you can argue that he is more developed now, but pitching well in the spring doesn’t translate to pitching well in the regular season
2. We have seen Hughes in the bullpen before–> dominant as anyone.
3. We have seen a dominant reliever transition to a starter (Chamberlain) with the Yankees before–> failed experiment is an understatement.
4. Imagine a bullpen that could go Hughes/Robertson to Chamberlain to Rivera with Aceves as long relief–> can’t get much better than that
5. By choosing Hughes with an innings limit, you are guaranteeing a little bullpen overuse–> not the best for long term success

On the bright side, the Yankees have C.C. Sabathia, Javier Vazquez and A.J. Burnett anchoring the rotation.

Do you agree with this move? Comment below

Before I get to my prediction, let’s have a preview of the series:

The Yankees have made the World Series for the first time in 6 years. This will be the 40th time the Yankees have been in the World Series (they won 26 times) and it is the first time that they have made the World Series since losing to the Marlins in 2003. The last time the Yankees won the World Series was in 2000 against the Mets.

The Phillies have made the World Series for the 2nd time in as many years. This will be the 7th time that the Phillies have been in the World Series (they won twice). The Phillies are the defending World Series Champions.

The Yankees had the best team batting average in the League Championship series (.279 in 6 games), while the Phillies had the worst batting average (.231 in 5 games). The Phillies had the most RBIs (34) and the Yankees had the second most (30). The Phillies hit the most HRs (10) and the Yankees hit the 2nd most (8). The Yankees had the highest On Base Percentage (.389) and the Phillies had the 2nd highest (.348). The Yankees also had the pitching advantage in the LCS, the Yankees team ERA was 2.91 (1st) and the Phillies team ERA was 3.07 (2nd).

The Phillies had a better team ERA in the regular season (4.16) than the Yankees did (4.26). The Yankees struck out more batters (1260) than the Phillies (1153). The Yankees were second in the Majors with a .283 batting average, while the Phillies were 23rd (of 30) with a .258 batting average. The Yankees had the most home-runs in the majors (244) and the Phillies were tied for 2nd (224). The Phillies strikeout more than the Yankees (1155 – 1014), and the Yankees walk more (663 [most in the majors] – 589). The Yankees had the most RBIs in the majors (881) and the Phillies had the 4th most (788).

Now most people going into the World Series would tell you that the Phillies are the better hitting team in the series, but clearly they are not. The Phillies hit the long-ball (but so do the Yankees, so they neutralize each other), but the Yankees hit the ball more often (the regular season and LCS batting averages prove this).

The starting pitching is close to even in the series (maybe the edge goes to the Yankees because of Pettitte’s experience), both teams have former Indians’ CY Young winners as their aces (Sabathia for the Yankees and Lee for the Phillies). The major advantage for the Yankees is the bullpen, the bullpen throughout the season has been much better than the Phillies (although the Phillies bullpen has been very good in the playoffs [so far]).

The Phillies and Yankees played one series during interleague play and the Phillies won the series 2 of 3. During the series, Lidge blew two saves for the Phillies.

I am going to be sticking with my original prediction of the Yankees winning the World Series. I am picking them for a few reasons:

1. Just looking at numbers the Yankees have the better team, but numbers are not the only important thing…
2. The Yankees were the best team at home during the regular season and they have yet to lose at home in the playoffs. The Yankees were 12 games better (57 wins to 45) than the Phillies at home. The Phillies actually played better on the road this season…
3. The Yankees and Phillies are about even on the road. Although the Phillies played better on the road than at home, they were only 2 games better than the Yankees were on the road (48 wins to 46).

With home-field advantage and the statistically better team, added to the fact that the Phillies don’t play particularly well at home, I think the Yankees will win the series in 6 games, with the breakdown the same as the LCS:

Game 1: Yankees win
Game 2: Yankees win
Game 3: Phillies win
Game 4: Yankees win
Game 5: Phillies win
Game 6: Yankees win

Comments? Questions? Feel free to post them below, or send me a tweet @MikesPickz

American League Division Series (ALDS):

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
This is probably the most one-sided match-up in the postseason. I like the Yankees in this series. I think the Yankees are a more complete team and will benefit tremendously from home field advantage.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. Boston Red Sox
This is going to be a very competitive series, but someone has to win it and I think that someone will be the Angels. These two teams are way different. The Red Sox are more of the power team, whereas the Angels are the small ball speed team. Past history doesn’t bode well for the Angels, but I think this year things will be different. If the Angels win one of the first two games against Lester or Beckett, I think they will win the series thanks to home field advantage. Also, Varitek cannot throw anybody out so expect the Angels to run (and run a lot).

American League Championship Series (ALCS):

New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Yankees will get their playoff nemesis in the ALCS. The Yankees have not had much past playoff success against the Angels, but as I mentioned before I think this season will be different and the Yankees will win the series. Why will this season be different? Well similarly to the Red Sox – Angels match-up, these two teams are way different (the Yankees are the power team and the Angels are the small ball team). The difference again will be the home field advantage, the Yankees home stadium is built perfectly for the team. Also, I honestly believe that the pitching is pretty even in terms of match-ups (Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte are just as good as Lackey, Weaver, Kazmir).

National League Division Series (NLDS):

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have one of the most amazing turnarounds that I have ever seen in the MLB. They were playing some pretty terrible baseball until they fired Clint Hurdle. After they overcame that “hurdle,” they have played some top level baseball and almost won the division. Despite that I feel that the Phillies will win this series. Cliff Lee was a top 3 deadline pick up this season, and the Phillies have a solid line-up with Utley, Howard and Ibanez. My one concern is the back of the pitching staff, the Phillies need to find a solid option to close out games. If they can’t find a reliable option, they may be in danger of the upset.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
I really like the St. Louis Cardinals this season. Acquiring Matt Holliday was a great move and they have probably the best rotation in the playoffs with Carpenter and Wainwright (either could win the Cy Young). Ryan Franklin is solid at closing out games. The Dodgers don’t have the pitching to win this series and they have not been playing their best baseball in September.

National League Championship Series (NLCS):

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
I think the Cardinals will win this series and join the Yankees in the World Series. The Cardinals have as good a  line up as the Phillies with Pujols, Holliday (if not a better one). The real difference is the pitching, the Cardinals pitching is much better than the Phillies. I would take Carpenter, Wainwright and Pineiro over Lee,  Hamels and Blanton/Happ any day of the week. I would certainly take Franklin over Lidge/Madson.

World Series:

New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Yankees look to do what they did the last time they opened a new stadium- win the world series. Clearly the Cardinals have the better starting rotation, but the Yankees have better line up when looking at the line up as a whole. The key to this series will be the fact that the Yankees have home field advantage. It will be a hard fought series, but I look for the Yankees to win it in 6 games. The Yankees are hungry for a championship, as they showed in the off-season by getting Sabathia, Teixeira and Burnett. I don’t think anything will stop the Yankees from achieving that goal.

Questions or comments? Feel free to post a comment below or send me a tweet @MikesPickz

That was just one of the major story-lines of the last week of the MLB. As I wrote last week, the other race to watch was the Braves Rockies for the NL Wild Card. Well, the race didn’t last long as the Braves lost 2 of 3 to the Marlins and then got swept by the Nationals. The Rockies on the other hand, put themselves in a situation to possibly win the NL West, which is quite remarkable considering how dominate the Dodgers were in the beginning of the season and how poorly the Rockies played. The Rockies needed to sweep the Dodgers to win the division, they lost 2 of 3 and thus will settle on the Wild Card.

Mark Reynolds really hurt his MVP bid down the stretch, his average dropped over 25 points in his huge September slump (not to mention he hurt my fantasy team). He was the only player in baseball with 40+ HRs, 100+ RBIs and 20+ SBs.

Chris Coghlan of the Florida Marlins continued his impressive campaign last week going 12 for 26. He looks like the front runner for NL Rookie of the year, as I can not even think of someone that has played better than him.

The New York Yankees ended on a very positive note, A.J. Burnett pitched well and the bats were alive in the 10-2 romp of the Rays. Alex Rodriguez had 2HRs and 7RBIs in one inning… yes one inning. He hit a 3-run home run and a Grand Slam in the 6th inning. The Yankees are looking for a World Series win, after finishing the regular season as the only team to win more than 1oo games.

That will do it for the final MLB Weekly Review for the 2009 season. It certainly was a good season and I can’t wait for the playoffs to begin.  Be sure to check back next April for more Weekly Reviews, and check back often for various postseason comments and updates- including my full postseason prediction.

P.S.- For those of you that have been following my MLB Weekly Reviews, I normally mention a Fantasy Baseball update for my teams in my two leagues. Well, as I mentioned last week, if it was a one week championship I would have two more championship trophies, but my teams both had slumping second weeks, combined with amazing weeks for my opponents = two unfortunate 2nd place finishes.