The Cincinnati Reds made the playoffs for the first time in 15 years and they have tons of momentum. The Atlanta Braves will look to send Bobby Cox out of the MLB as a champion. The San Francisco Giants held off the San Diego Padres in a match-up that literally came down to the last game of the season. The Texas Rangers finally overcame the Los Angeles Angels in the AL West. The Tampa Bay Rays return to the playoffs two seasons removed from winning the AL Pennant in 2008. Then there are the familiar faces – the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins all return to the postseason this year.

October baseball is always great and this season will not be any different. Here is how I see it playing out:

AL Wild Card Match-Up
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Last season the Yankees competed against the Twins in the first round of the playoffs. The result a three game sweep for the Yankees, who went on to with their 27th World Series Championship. The Yankees have the type of offense that can carry acceptable pitching. First, they need to get some acceptable pitching. C.C. Sabathia is as good as they come and will be relied on as the workhorse that he is. Pettitte should live up to his postseason expectations, but they will need Hughes and Burnett to step up big time. Last season the Yankees were able to win the World Series on a three man rotation, this season they will need more than that. The Twins will have home field advantage in this match-up and that should help them avoid the sweep (but the cold is nothing new to the Yankees). Joe Mauer’s knee is a real question mark and if he is not effective the Twins might have some trouble- especially with Morneau out for the year.
Prediction: Yankees 3 – Twins 1
Bottom Line: The Yankees offense will carry them.

AL Divisional Match-Up
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays
The Rangers have made the postseason for the first time since 1999 and they should prove to be a tough match-up for the Rays. The Rangers finally have some pitching to go along with their potent offense. I actually like the Rangers staff (Lee, Lewis, Hunter, Wilson) over the Rays staff (Price, Shields, Garza, Davis). Both teams have speed, but the Rangers have more pop. Josh Hamilton, one of the leading AL MVP candidates, looked good over the last couple of games after returning from a rib injury.
Prediction: Rangers 3 – Rays 2
Bottom Line: The Rangers will out-pitch and out-slug the Rays.

NL Wild Card Match-Up
Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants
The Braves really struggled down the stretch, and were lucky to still make the playoffs. The Giants and Braves both made the playoffs with wins on the last day and this should be a tough match-up. The Giants have the upper hand in pitching, but they certainly can struggle to score runs at times. I expect a low scoring series, but the injuries to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado are going to hurt the Braves line-up. Both clubs have great closers – Wagner (ATL) and Wilson (SF) – that know how to strike a batter out.
Prediction: Giants 3 – Braves 2
Bottom Line: The Braves just don’t have enough offense.

NL Divisional Match-Up
Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies
The Reds are “lucky” enough to play the team with the best record in the MLB in their first postseason series in fifteen years. The Phillies have the better starting rotation, but the Reds do have a leading MVP candidate in Joey Votto. The Reds staff has less innings than the Phillies’ H2O (Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt) and that might play a factor in this series. Each member of H2O has over 200 innings while only Arroyo has more than 200 innings for the Reds. If the Phillies make it past the Reds, the innings may creep up on them. Also, it will be interesting to see how Halladay performs in his first ever postseason start. Interesting stat- The Reds are the only team to score more runs than the Phillies in the National League this season. Also, let’s not forget about the dominant starting rotation of the 2009 Cardinals, that didn’t seem to work out too well.
Prediction: Reds 3 – Phillies 2
Bottom Line: The Reds are fresh and the Phillies’ offense hasn’t been consistent enough.

AL Championship
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers
The Rangers and Yankees split their season series (4-4) and will look to settle the score on the field when it really matters. The Rangers have a slight edge in pitching and but the Yankees have a deeper line-up when things are clicking. Both teams have leading MVP candidates (Hamilton and Cano), and this should be a thrilling series.
Prediction: Yankees 4 – Rangers 3
Bottom Line: The Yankees are more experienced and that should help them prevail.

NL Championship
Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants
If you had told me at the beginning of the season that the Reds and Giants would be battling for the NL Pennant, I would have thought you were crazy. This game is going to come down to whether or not the Giants can keep up with the Reds offensively.
Prediction: Reds 4 – Giants 2
Bottom Line: The Reds will be able to outscore the Giants pretty comfortably.

World Series
New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds
The Reds would have home field advantage in this match-up since the National League was able to win the All-Star game. The Yankees did not face the Reds during the regular season and both teams should match-up in terms of pitching. The two differences will be experience and hitting. The Yankees have by far the more potent offense, with three players surpassing the 100 RBI mark (compared to one for the Reds). Home field advantage will be important for the Reds, since it forces the Yankees to take a bat out of the line-up.
Prediction: Yankees 4 – Reds 2
Bottom Line: The Yankees have too much fire power on offense and they have a true dominant ace, unlike the Reds.

What are your thoughts? Agree or not, let me know in the comments!

[Photo Credit: BigLeagueBaseballs.com]

Then came game 6 back in NY against their nemesis from Boston, Pedro Martinez, who was pitching on normal rest for the first time in a month. They jumped off to a quick lead and never looked back. The World Series MVP, Hideki Matsui, crushed the baseball driving in 6 RBIs (2-run HR, 2-run double, 2-run single) in the game.

This win was huge for the Yankees- it was their first season in the new stadium and they spent tons of money on key players in the off-season. Without C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher, the Yankees don’t win the World Series this year. It was also huge because Joe Girardi failed to take the Yankees to the playoffs last season and was under intense pressure to win this year.

If the Yankees did not win the World Series this year, Girardi would have been questioned for what ended up being a brilliant strategy. The strategy?… to go with a 3 man rotation throughout the entire playoffs and World Series.  Generally a team doesn’t have success with this strategy, the last time a team won the World Series with a 3-man rotation was the 1991 Twins.

The Phillies and Phillies’ fans should not put their heads down, they were in the World Series for the 2nd time in as many years. It is not an easy task to make the World Series two years in a row and the fact that they won once is an accomplishment. This year, they lost to a better team, it didn’t help that the NLCS MVP, Ryan Howard, set the World Series’ record with 13Ks and was virtually non-existent in the World Series. Chase Utley did his best to pick up the slack, tying the World Series record with 5 home-runs, but the Phillies were ultimately over matched against the Yankees.

The Yankees have three big questions to answer going into the off-season: 1) Sign or let Johnny Damon go?, 2) Sign or let Hideki Matsui go?, 3) Who will they get to fill in the back end of the rotation?

Congratulations Yankees on winning the 2009 World Series.

I recently read a very well written and insightful article by Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. I’ll sum up the article and give my opinion below:

He talks about how in the post game interview Charlie Manuel flat out said “Utley was safe.” He mentions how when questioned about whether or not he had caught the ball, Ryan Howard said, “Well, they called him out” and then he winked. The two plays referenced above could have hugely altered the outcome of the game. He then lists the near dozen big time mistakes that the umpires have made during this postseason alone.

He goes on to counter what many people, including Shane Victorino, say about instant replay- you can’t review every play or it would take 7 hours to play a game. Passan counters with saying that moderation is key and he alludes to the NFL.

That is the solution, you keep the existing instant replay rules regarding homeruns, but you add to it by implementing a challenge flag procedure exactly like the NFL has. The NFL has a proven system that works, each manager would get two “challenges” of calls per game. If it is a huge play the manager calls the challenge and the umpires check the replay. It really is that simple. The system works and it would not extend the game by any noticeable amount of time, with a 3 minute max review time that is a maximum of 12 minutes that could get added to each game– really not a big deal to get the calls correct.

Once again, I recommend that you read Passan’s article. Fell free to comment below or send me a tweet @MikesPickz

Before I get to my prediction, let’s have a preview of the series:

The Yankees have made the World Series for the first time in 6 years. This will be the 40th time the Yankees have been in the World Series (they won 26 times) and it is the first time that they have made the World Series since losing to the Marlins in 2003. The last time the Yankees won the World Series was in 2000 against the Mets.

The Phillies have made the World Series for the 2nd time in as many years. This will be the 7th time that the Phillies have been in the World Series (they won twice). The Phillies are the defending World Series Champions.

The Yankees had the best team batting average in the League Championship series (.279 in 6 games), while the Phillies had the worst batting average (.231 in 5 games). The Phillies had the most RBIs (34) and the Yankees had the second most (30). The Phillies hit the most HRs (10) and the Yankees hit the 2nd most (8). The Yankees had the highest On Base Percentage (.389) and the Phillies had the 2nd highest (.348). The Yankees also had the pitching advantage in the LCS, the Yankees team ERA was 2.91 (1st) and the Phillies team ERA was 3.07 (2nd).

The Phillies had a better team ERA in the regular season (4.16) than the Yankees did (4.26). The Yankees struck out more batters (1260) than the Phillies (1153). The Yankees were second in the Majors with a .283 batting average, while the Phillies were 23rd (of 30) with a .258 batting average. The Yankees had the most home-runs in the majors (244) and the Phillies were tied for 2nd (224). The Phillies strikeout more than the Yankees (1155 – 1014), and the Yankees walk more (663 [most in the majors] – 589). The Yankees had the most RBIs in the majors (881) and the Phillies had the 4th most (788).

Now most people going into the World Series would tell you that the Phillies are the better hitting team in the series, but clearly they are not. The Phillies hit the long-ball (but so do the Yankees, so they neutralize each other), but the Yankees hit the ball more often (the regular season and LCS batting averages prove this).

The starting pitching is close to even in the series (maybe the edge goes to the Yankees because of Pettitte’s experience), both teams have former Indians’ CY Young winners as their aces (Sabathia for the Yankees and Lee for the Phillies). The major advantage for the Yankees is the bullpen, the bullpen throughout the season has been much better than the Phillies (although the Phillies bullpen has been very good in the playoffs [so far]).

The Phillies and Yankees played one series during interleague play and the Phillies won the series 2 of 3. During the series, Lidge blew two saves for the Phillies.

I am going to be sticking with my original prediction of the Yankees winning the World Series. I am picking them for a few reasons:

1. Just looking at numbers the Yankees have the better team, but numbers are not the only important thing…
2. The Yankees were the best team at home during the regular season and they have yet to lose at home in the playoffs. The Yankees were 12 games better (57 wins to 45) than the Phillies at home. The Phillies actually played better on the road this season…
3. The Yankees and Phillies are about even on the road. Although the Phillies played better on the road than at home, they were only 2 games better than the Yankees were on the road (48 wins to 46).

With home-field advantage and the statistically better team, added to the fact that the Phillies don’t play particularly well at home, I think the Yankees will win the series in 6 games, with the breakdown the same as the LCS:

Game 1: Yankees win
Game 2: Yankees win
Game 3: Phillies win
Game 4: Yankees win
Game 5: Phillies win
Game 6: Yankees win

Comments? Questions? Feel free to post them below, or send me a tweet @MikesPickz

American League Division Series (ALDS):

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
This is probably the most one-sided match-up in the postseason. I like the Yankees in this series. I think the Yankees are a more complete team and will benefit tremendously from home field advantage.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. Boston Red Sox
This is going to be a very competitive series, but someone has to win it and I think that someone will be the Angels. These two teams are way different. The Red Sox are more of the power team, whereas the Angels are the small ball speed team. Past history doesn’t bode well for the Angels, but I think this year things will be different. If the Angels win one of the first two games against Lester or Beckett, I think they will win the series thanks to home field advantage. Also, Varitek cannot throw anybody out so expect the Angels to run (and run a lot).

American League Championship Series (ALCS):

New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Yankees will get their playoff nemesis in the ALCS. The Yankees have not had much past playoff success against the Angels, but as I mentioned before I think this season will be different and the Yankees will win the series. Why will this season be different? Well similarly to the Red Sox – Angels match-up, these two teams are way different (the Yankees are the power team and the Angels are the small ball team). The difference again will be the home field advantage, the Yankees home stadium is built perfectly for the team. Also, I honestly believe that the pitching is pretty even in terms of match-ups (Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte are just as good as Lackey, Weaver, Kazmir).

National League Division Series (NLDS):

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have one of the most amazing turnarounds that I have ever seen in the MLB. They were playing some pretty terrible baseball until they fired Clint Hurdle. After they overcame that “hurdle,” they have played some top level baseball and almost won the division. Despite that I feel that the Phillies will win this series. Cliff Lee was a top 3 deadline pick up this season, and the Phillies have a solid line-up with Utley, Howard and Ibanez. My one concern is the back of the pitching staff, the Phillies need to find a solid option to close out games. If they can’t find a reliable option, they may be in danger of the upset.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
I really like the St. Louis Cardinals this season. Acquiring Matt Holliday was a great move and they have probably the best rotation in the playoffs with Carpenter and Wainwright (either could win the Cy Young). Ryan Franklin is solid at closing out games. The Dodgers don’t have the pitching to win this series and they have not been playing their best baseball in September.

National League Championship Series (NLCS):

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
I think the Cardinals will win this series and join the Yankees in the World Series. The Cardinals have as good a  line up as the Phillies with Pujols, Holliday (if not a better one). The real difference is the pitching, the Cardinals pitching is much better than the Phillies. I would take Carpenter, Wainwright and Pineiro over Lee,  Hamels and Blanton/Happ any day of the week. I would certainly take Franklin over Lidge/Madson.

World Series:

New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Yankees look to do what they did the last time they opened a new stadium- win the world series. Clearly the Cardinals have the better starting rotation, but the Yankees have better line up when looking at the line up as a whole. The key to this series will be the fact that the Yankees have home field advantage. It will be a hard fought series, but I look for the Yankees to win it in 6 games. The Yankees are hungry for a championship, as they showed in the off-season by getting Sabathia, Teixeira and Burnett. I don’t think anything will stop the Yankees from achieving that goal.

Questions or comments? Feel free to post a comment below or send me a tweet @MikesPickz