Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL Season!
The favorite is marked with the spread in parenthesis next to the team name. For example, Patriots (-6.5). The best bet is the team that I feel is most likely to win and cover the spread this week. The spreads are from the NY Daily News on Wednesday and may be slightly different than the spread available when you are reading this.
Week 3 BYE WEEKS: None
Best Bet: Lions (+6.5) – Win
Week 3 Recap: 8-8-0
Thursday Night:
- Titans (-1.5) at Jaguars
- The pick: Jaguars (+1.5) – WIN
Sunday Early Games:
- Bengals at Bills (-6)
- The pick: Bills (-6) – LOSS, you want to think the Bengals will come out tough after getting demolished by the 49ers last week, but this is just a bad situation for them. The Bills defense is legit (top 10 against the pass and run) and the Bills have a top 10 rushing offense. We just saw the 49ers run all over the Bengals and I expect the Bills to do the same. Plus, they will have the crowd on their side in their home opener.
- Lions at Eagles (-6.5)
- The pick: Lions (+6.5) – BEST BET – WIN, the Eagles are banged up and it is only week 3, plus they have to look ahead to a short turnaround against the Packers on Thursday Night in Week 4.
- Jets at Patriots (-22.5)
- The pick: Patriots (-22.5) – LOSS, I hate giving this many points, but the Patriots have allowed 3 points all season and face a 3rd string quarterback at home. I think the question is can the Patriots complete a 2nd shutout in 3 weeks?
- Raiders at Vikings (-8)
- The pick: Vikings (-8) – WIN, the Vikings under Mike Zimmer are very good at home (30-12-1 ATS) and the Raiders are typically not very good on the road (lost 10 of the past 11). I think the Vikings come out angry after last week’s loss to the Packers and blow the Raiders out.
- Ravens at Chiefs (-6.5)
- The pick: Ravens (+6.5) – WIN, the Ravens defense is good enough to slow the Chiefs down just enough to keep it close. The Ravens offense has been on fire against bad defenses to start the season and they get another bad defense to put points up against.
- Falcons at Colts (-1.5)
- The pick: Falcons (+1.5) – LOSS, this is a tough one to pick, but Darius Leonard being ruled out has me lean to the Falcons.
- Broncos at Packers (-7.5)
- The pick: Broncos (+7.5) – LOSS, I do like the Packers to win this game, but the Broncos defense is good enough to keep it close and they pretty much have to treat this as a must win game. The Packers offense hasn’t been firing on all cylinders yet this season, mainly due to playing a pair of great defenses in Chicago and Minnesota – and the Broncos are another great defense.
- Dolphins at Cowboys (-21.5)
- The pick: Cowboys (-21.5) – WIN, again I hate giving up this many points, but the Cowboys look legit and the Dolphins look like they have mailed it in. Dak is trying to get paid and I think this is a game he can pad his stats.
Sunday Late Games:
- Giants at Bucs (6.5)
- The pick: Bucs (-6.5) – LOSS, welcome to the NFL, Daniel Jones! Todd Bowles has the Bucs’ defense looking legit this season and it will be too much for the Giants.
- Panthers (-4.5) at Cards
- The pick: Cards (+4.5) – LOSS, Cam Newton has been ruled out and based on how he played last week, Kyle Allen might be an improvement. But, having said that, the Cards are home and this might be the perfect opportunity for Kyler Murray to get his first career win.
- Steelers at 49ers (-6.5)
- The pick: 49ers (-6.5) – LOSS, the 49ers are off to a great start, Jimmy G has looked better each game and the running game is clicking. The Steelers are reeling and I don’t think Mason Rudolph will be terrible, but James Conner is banged up (practicing, so will probably play).
- Saints at Seahawks (-3)
- The pick: Saints (+3) – WIN, I think having a week to prepare as the starter and to have a game plan created specifically for Teddy Bridgewater will make him look much better than he did last week. I think the Seahawks either win by a field goal or lose outright, so I will take the points.
- Texans at Chargers (-3)
- The pick: Texans (+3) – WIN, I think a field goal decides this game and so I’d rather be on the side with the points.
Sunday Night Football:
- Rams (-3) at Browns
- The pick: Rams (-3) – WIN, the Browns really haven’t looked that good this year. Goff historically struggles on the road, but they already got a road win this season and the run game has been good so far (top 10).
Monday Night Football:
- Bears (-3.5) at Redskins
- The pick: Redskins (+3.5) – LOSS, I wasn’t sold on Mitchell Trubisky going into the season and I am definitely not sold on him now. I don’t trust the Bears offense to cover more than a field goal, especially on the road.
Previous Week’s Record: 5-11
Regular Season Record: 13-18-1 (42.19%)
Postseason Record: N/A
Best Bet Record: 1-1
Click here for my Historical Pick Records
King of the Hill aka Lock of the Week aka Survivor Pool Picks:
In this section, I will post my pick for a survivor pool. Once a team is used, I can’t use them again for the rest of the season. The team selected only has to win the game, not cover the spread. Pick One and Pick Two are independent of each other. If I use a team with Picks One, I can use them later with Pick Two.
| Week | Pick One | Pick Two |
| Week 1 | Seahawks – win | Eagles – win |
| Week 2 | Ravens – win | Texans – win |
| Week 3 | Cowboys – win | Bills – win |
| Week 4 | ||
| Week 5 | ||
| Week 6 | ||
| Week 7 | ||
| Week 8 | ||
| Week 9 | ||
| Week 10 | ||
| Week 11 | ||
| Week 12 | ||
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 | ||
| Week 15 | ||
| Week 16 | ||
| Week 17 | ||
| Total | 3-0 | 3-0 |
