2009-10 NFL Power Rankings – Week 10

Welcome back to the MikesPickz Power Rankings!

I have looked over the formula that I introduced last week and I have tweaked it slightly to what I think will be the perfect formula for the rest of the season.

Last week the biggest story was the Bucs beating the Packers by 10 points. Let me preview the rankings by saying the Bucs are actually not last this week. The Packers are in trouble, it is inexcusable that Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 37 times this season. If they don’t figure out how to protect him, the Packers will have a long season and a possible record breaking season (David Carr was sacked 76 times in a season, the NFL record).

And here are the rankings for Week 10:

*Tiers are teams that are within 20 points of each other using my formula*

    Tier 1

  1. Saints– Imagine if they started games as well as they finished them.
  2. Colts– Without 2 of their key defenders, they were still able to beat the Texans. Biggest game of the year for the Colts this week (excluding the playoffs, of-course).
    Tier 2

  3. Patriots– If they win this week, they are the team to beat in the AFC.
  4. Steelers– The Steelers are 5-0 since their mediocre start of the season. Everything is clicking on offense and defense, but I still think that the Bengals have what it takes to beat them this week (and they already beat them this year).
  5. Vikings– The Vikings get Detroit coming off the BYE week, which continues the pattern of weak competition for the Vikings. Currently, Vikings opponents have a winning percentage of 36.
  6. Bengals– Do not overlook the Bengals this week. The Bengals are a complete football team- their defense is underrated in the league and I think they can win in Pittsburgh.
  7. Broncos– The Broncos have hit a rough patch in their amazing season. Despite the two losses in a row, they are still playing solid defense and outside of last week, Kyle Orton has not been making mental errors. I expect them to rebound nicely against the Redskins this week.
  8. Cowboys– The Cowboys have proven that they are the team to beat in the NFC East this season. The emergence of Miles Austin has been the key to this team (and the fact that Romo has not been making poor decisions over the last 5 games).
    Tier 3

  9. Falcons– The difference between the Cowboys and Falcons in my rankings is quite large (over 10 points) despite the one position difference in the rankings. The Falcons have been somewhat inconsistent this season and will have a tough game against an emerging Panthers team this week.
  10. Eagles– The Eagles blew a big opportunity last week. They could have proven that they are the team to beat in the NFC East, but they didn’t show up at home (even though they only lost by 4, it could have been worse).
  11. Cards– The Cards are exactly where they were last season at this point. 5-3 and in first place of the NFC West. Can they repeat and make it to the Super Bowl again? I don’t think so. They must play better at home, but I don’t expect them to have home field advantage if they do in fact make the playoffs.
  12. Chargers– Watch out for the Chargers in the second half of the season. Against the Giants, Merriman had 2 sacks, which was 2nd game in a row that he had 2 sacks. With Merriman waking up and the offense as good as it is, they will be a tough game for anyone.
  13. Texans– The Texans are off to a great season and I think they will finally make it over the 8 win plateau. They played a tough game against the Colts and I think that they might be able to beat them in Houston.
    Tier 4

  14. Dolphins– Do not let the Dolphins record fool you. They are a solid football team with very bad luck. They have had by far the toughest schedule in the NFL to this point. Their opponents are 39-17, which is a 70% winning percentage.
  15. Ravens– Last week’s loss to the Bengals was huge. Now the Bengals own the tiebreaker against the Ravens and I am fairly confident that the Ravens will not make the playoffs this season. On a positive note, Ray Rice is amazing!!
  16. Packers– I think I could block better than the Packers’ O-Line.
  17. Giants– The Giants can not seem to beat anyone these days. They sure miss the easy stretch of their schedule. I will say it again, the Giants are crazy for making Eli Manning the highest paid player in the NFL- so not worth it. I bet after last week they wish they had Phillip Rivers.
  18. Bears– The Bears are another team that I don’t see going anywhere this season. They really miss Urlacher in the middle on defense. Losing by 20 in  your building (a notorious tough place to play) is not acceptable.
  19. Jets– Fun fact- the Jets have the best rushing offense in the NFL this season, averaging over 170 yards per game.
  20. Jaguars– The Jaguars almost blew the game last week against the lowly Chiefs, just further proving that you never know what Jaguars team will show up each week.
    Tier 5
  21. Panthers– The Panthers have found their offense groove over the last two weeks. DeAngelo Williams is a monster at running back and as long as Delhomme does not turnover the ball (0 INTs in the past 2 weeks), they will be able to remain in any game.
  22. Seahawks– If the Seahawks play as well as they do at home on the road, watch out. Till then, enjoy tier 5 of the NFL.
  23. Bills– I am not sold on Fitzpatrick at QB. He is not the answer for the future of the team.
  24. 49ers– Yes, Alex Smith is moving the ball on offense and yes, they play great defense, but they have terrible special teams (which kills their field position) and Alex Smith is susceptible to the INT (3 last week).
  25. Titans– I understand that they beat the 49ers, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are a better overall team. If the Titans are able to blow out the Bills this week (which I can see happen), they will certainly make a big jump in next weeks rankings.
    Tier 6

  26. Chiefs– Chris Chambers is looking like a nice addition (2 TDs last week).
  27. Raiders– Al Davis…JaMarcus Russell…Tom Cable…ouch
  28. Bucs– The Bucs pulled off a nice win against the Packers. The key to the game was the 6 sacks that they were to able to get on Rodgers. It was a nice win for rookie Josh Freeman, but he wasn’t the main reason that they won the game.
  29. Browns– Eric Mangini is not a good head coach. Let’s see how Brady Quinn does this week.
  30. Redskins– Fun Fact- the Redskins have the NFL’s best passing defense (159.9 yards per game). It is slightly misleading, because they have the 25th worst rushing defense, so teams don’t need to pass on them.
  31. Rams– The Rams were lucky enough to have a BYE after their first and possibly only win of the season. I hope they enjoyed the feeling of coming off a win, because against the Saints this week- it will not be pretty.
  32. Lions– The Lions actually average over 20 points a game, which is not terrible. BUT, they still have an average loss of 13 points! They need to work on the defense if they want to win another game this season. They also have a -7 turnover differential, further-proof that they need to work on defense (and holding onto the ball on offense).

That will do it for the Week 10 rankings. Questions and comments are always welcome, leave a comment below or send me a tweet @MikesPickz

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  1. I don’t agree with you on the Dolphins having “by far” the hardest schedule. They versed the two undefeated teams who are a combined 18-0, which inflates the win % of its opponents. I think the Broncos have as hard of a schedule, if not harder than the Dolphins, further proving that the success of this team is more impressive.

    Also, teams have bad games. Hence, Pats and Pitt. These teams are easily in the top 3 of the AFC and they an early loss to a division foe doesn’t mean much. Everyone thought the Pats losing to the Jets was the end of the world, but now look at where they are. Pitt deserves more respect and is quietly “earning” its way up the rankings to be proclaimed the best team in the AFC and NFL. Pitt WILL beat the Bengals. Tell that overrated receiver (who i refuse to mention by his new name)

    Speaking of the Bengals, in my opinion they need this game badly. They lost to Denver and Houston. Yes, they beat Pitt and beat the Ravens twice, but I am not yet convinced they are a top tier team in the NFL. Let’s see if the Bengals make me eat my words….they won’t

  2. John,

    I agree that the Broncos have had a tough schedule this season and their record is impressive, but the Dolphins easiest opponent was the 3 win Bills, and Denver had the Browns and Raiders back to back in weeks 2 and 3. So, top to bottom the Dolphins have had a tougher schedule to this point in the season.

    I don’t understand your second point, because I gave the Steelers their respect. I ranked them #4 in the NFL.

    For your last point, you previously mention that the Broncos are an impressive team, so how does a loss to them look bad on a team? Also, the Texans have a pretty solid team this year, and again using your own point- every team has a bad game, so how is it extremely bad to lose to a winning team?

    Also, everyone has their opinion, but I believe that the Bengals do have what it takes to travel to Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers. The Bengals are a top tier team in the NFL and they will make the Playoffs this season.

  3. “Pitt WILL beat the Bengals.”
    “Let’s see if the Bengals make me eat my words….they won’t”

    Looks like you spoke too soon. Now with an undefeated record in the division, including a season sweep of the Steelers and Ravens, the Bengals should finally get the recognition they deserve throughout the NFL. They are a top tier team in the NFL.

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